The Shutdown Was a "Brilliant" Political Move

Didn't you know that?

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The longest government shutdown in modern history has ended, with no apparent victories for Democrats, and everyone has an opinion on why it happened and what it means. I’m not the only one who quietly wondered what the point was. Even though it was nice to see Democrats finally standing up for once, they had no real strategy for getting what they wanted.

As an article in Vox says:

But the reality is that Democrats never had a plausible strategy to get what they said they wanted — an extension of expiring Affordable Care Act subsidies — out of the shutdown fight. And after 40 days, they may have been winning the politics of the shutdown, but they had made no apparent progress toward getting Trump and Republicans to give into their substantive demands.

Indeed, rather than negotiate, Trump has in recent days started pressuring Senate Republicans to abolish the filibuster — removing the tool Democrats used to cause the shutdown, and letting the GOP pass laws with the party’s votes alone.

Honestly, a lot of us are trying to distance ourselves from the political noise these days because it’s just so painful to watch. That doesn’t mean we’re checked out. We still care about what’s going on. Many of us still vote. We still help. We’re just not jumping on every bandwagon.

If nothing else, even the most hardcore preppers and the most pessimistic “doomers” probably want to know some of the core motivations for what their politicians are doing. Until today, I honestly didn’t understand what the point of the shutdown was, if there was any strategic logic involved at all.

Turns out, there was some logic.

It was just…

The first thing that confused me

From the first day, this shutdown was marketed to us as the hour that Democrats finally found an ounce of courage. Sure, it was nice to see them stand up a little for once, but the whole courage slogan didn’t make sense.

See, MAGA wanted the shutdown.

This whole time, it never really made sense to stand up to your opponent by giving them exactly what they wanted. Republicans did everything they could to take advantage of this thing. They used it as an excuse to conduct more federal layoffs. They used it as an excuse to cut SNAP benefits. They prepared for war with Venezuela. They gave $20 billion to fascist allies in Argentina. They invaded cities. They bought private jets for themselves. They started building a bunker under the east wing. They remodeled bathrooms.

They threw parties.

We can spend days speculating about the reasons why MAGA Republicans don’t fear consequences or accountability. Maybe they have 9.5 plans to rig the next election. Maybe they just know that their base will always come around at the last minute and realize who they hate more than Trump.

That would be us.

Did Democrats have a secret plan?

With American politicians, we must always use the word “plan” loosely. A real plan wouldn’t have us anywhere near this mess.

That said…

Either Democrats stormed into this shutdown with no plan at all, or they had something up their sleeve. After all, why would they put the country through the longest shutdown in modern history if they knew it would end with them winning absolutely nothing of substance?

Well, that’s being discussed.

First:

Democrats wanted to repair their image after nearly a year of capitulating to Trump on virtually every issue. They wanted to look tough, especially in the weeks leading up to the November elections. It seems to have worked.

The shutdown was a major morale booster for Democrats heading to the polls in November. As you’ll see, some Democrats do attribute these recent election victories to the flurry of support for the shutdown.

The shutdown turbocharged vibes.

It’s just a little coincidental that Democrats dropped the shutdown right after everyone was done celebrating the recent wins. It baffled every newspaper, every magazine, every late night talkshow host.

Here’s Jon Stewart:

According to Stewart, Democrats just blew it.

Because the leadership stinks.

Well, maybe…

But…

If you’re just shutting down the government to rebuild your brand, and you have no intention of it accomplishing anything, then this is exactly what you would do, and you would also anticipate some backlash. You would just bet on the backlash fading in time for the next election cycle.

Lo and behold, Democrats have started to explain the reasons for why they ended the shutdown. They wanted to protect the filibuster. They wanted to protect airlines. Above all, they wanted to continue campaigning on healthcare. They don’t want Americans to actually get affordable healthcare. They just want us to continue living in fear of losing it to MAGA Republicans.

Here’s Chris Murphy, who blasted the capitulations but then very quietly nodded in approval. From a piece in The New York Times:

“There is still a net good that comes from this,” he said, noting that the December vote that Senate Republicans agreed to hold on extending the Obamacare tax credits will give Democrats another opportunity to spotlight their health care message. “The silver lining of that agreement is that the issue doesn’t disappear,” he said.

Democrats only want to save healthcare if they’re absolutely sure they can take credit for it. The group of Democrats that caved first have said exactly the same thing in more candid conversations revealed by The New Republic. Except for them, it wasn’t just a silver lining. It was the platter.

From the piece:

More than a dozen House and Senate Democrats expressed anxiety that actually preserving premium subsidies for the Affordable Care Act’s enhanced premium tax credits through their shutdown demands could strip them of a winning issue in the coming midterms, reported The New York Times. Their secondary anxiety involved the powerful Senate filibuster, fearing that conservatives might actually bow to Donald Trump’s demands to ax the disruptive legislative tool.

“The political logic of the shutdown fight was inverted: If Democrats got the tax credits extended—if they ‘won’—they would be solving a huge electoral problem for Republicans,” reported the Times. “If Republicans successfully allowed the tax credits to expire—if they ‘won’—they would be handing Democrats a cudgel with which to beat them in the elections.”

I’m going to repeat that for emphasis:

These Democrats didn’t want to “win” the shutdown because, even if they could pull it off, it would “strip them of a winning issue.” They’re perfectly happy to let the poorest, most vulnerable Americans struggle and suffer so they can maximize their own election chances. You know, that doesn’t just sound cruel and manipulative. It also sounds incredibly dumb. If you save healthcare, then you can take credit for it. If you fail to save healthcare and throw out a bunch of lame excuses, that’s not going to impress anyone. It wouldn’t impress me.

Democrats have been trying these “clever” and “brilliant” strategies for at least a decade now, and they almost always fail.

Apparently, Democrats are also gloating that they were able to portray Trump as even more of a bad guy than they already had.

Again, from The NY Times:

Senate Democrats believe that they held together long enough for Mr. Trump to reveal a new level of callousness in his refusal to fund food stamps for 42 million Americans who rely on the nation’s largest anti-hunger program. And they believe all of that helped contribute to a mini-blue wave last week, one that could continue if Democrats can keep the right issues at the forefront.

Pardon me, a new level of callousness?

That helps Trump.

Say what you will about his approval numbers or getting booed at a football game. If you’ve been paying attention, you know that Trump’s base has absolutely loved watching him kick 42 million Americans off SNAP benefits. For all we know, they were booing him for not being cruel enough, not strong enough, and for letting Democrats occupy the moral high ground.

So, that’s the only thing that makes sense.

Democrats staged a shutdown fight when they knew it wouldn’t result in any tangible victories. MAGA wanted the shutdown. They knew it would succeed in recharging the vibes long enough to pull off some election wins. In their eyes, it would make Trump look extra bad and set up healthcare as a midterm election issue.

It was a bad strategy.

Trump benefits from looking cruel, just not from looking weak. Americans will absolutely blame Democrats now for killing their healthcare, because they lied to everyone and acted like they were going to keep the shutdown going until Republicans capitulated. They promised victory.

They lost.

Now Trump looks strong again. He looks cruel as ever, but his base interprets that as a sign of strength. To them, he’s the ultimate boss.

We know what comes next. Over the next few days, the Blue MAGA base will deny the shutdown was a campaign strategy.

Then they’ll change their tune. They’ll start to say it was a brilliant political maneuver. They’ll eat up the spin. They’ll say it helped them win crucial elections. They’ll say it helped frame choices for the midterm elections. They’ll say it would’ve been foolish to actually secure healthcare for Americans now, when instead they could use it as a core campaign issue next year, even if that strategy might backfire. When it backfires, they’ll scapegoat a group on their own side.

They’ll say there’s nothing wrong with engineering emergencies that cause massive pain and suffering for the most vulnerable Americans. There’s nothing wrong with pretending to be a hero in order to score political points. They’ll say it works for Red MAGA, even if the entire point is to be better than them.

Every now and then, some opinion columnist manages to say the unthinkable: If politicians would just do their jobs, maybe they would win elections. Maybe they wouldn’t have to keep coming up with “brilliant” plans. Of course, they probably won’t, because they don’t work for us. They need these schemes because it’s always about tricking or forcing us to vote for them despite the fact that they never, ever actually do their jobs. That’s why they have to hatch these strategies.

The end justifies the means.

Right?